Chance: Expected Outcome

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by mvanderw
Last updated 5 years ago

Discipline:
Math
Subject:
Prob/Stat
Grade:
6

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Chance: Expected Outcome

EXCPECTED OUTCOME!An expected outcome is what we expect to happen when we do an experiment with chance, given the probability of an event happening. For example, tossing a coin. Both heads and tails have an even chance (or 50%chance) of happening. Therefore, the expected outcome would be getting HEADS 50% of the time, and TAILS 50% of the time.

CHANCE

OBSERVEDOUTCOMEAn observed outcome is the outcome we get from conducting the experiment. For example, tossing a coin 5 times, and it landing on HEADS 3 times, and Tails 2 times.

DICE ROLLWhat is the probability of rolling a 6 on one six sided dice?If you were to roll one dice 30 times, what would be the expected outcome of rolling a 6?What is the expected outcome of rolling an EVEN number on one 6 sided dice?What would be the expected outcome of rolling an EVEN number, if the dice was rolled 30 times?ACTIVITYRoll one six sided dice 30 times, recording your results.Was the observed outcome similar or different to the expected outcome? Why do you think this is?

Tree diagrams allow us to see the probability of of expected outcomes.Watch the video above then follow the activity..Create a tree diagram of the outcomes, and probability of these outcomes, of tossing a coin 3 times,and answer the questions below:1. What is the probability of getting only one HEAD?2. What is the probability of getting one HEAD and one TAIL?3. Does getting a HEAD on first toss mean you have a HIGHER chance of getting a TAIL on the second toss? Why? Why not?

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COIN TOSSWhat is the expected outcome of tossing HEAD after 30 tosses?What is the expected outcome of tossing TAIL after 30 tosses?Toss a coin 30 times, recording your results.Was your observed outcome close to the expected outcome? Why do you think this is?Extension activity:Predict the expected outcomes for tossing a coin 50 times. Toss the coin 50 times and compare your results to the results of the 30 tosses. Were they similar or different? Why?

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USING 2 DICEWrite down all the possible outcomes of rolling 2 six sided dice in a table.e.g. 1,1. 1,2.1. What is the probability of rolling a 1?2. What is the probability of rolling an odd number?3. What is the probability of rolling doubles?

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EARLY FINISHERS!Calculate the expected outcome of rolling:- a 4- one odd and one even number- two odd numbers(when rolling 2 six sided dice)Use THESE DICE to roll 30 times, recording your results.Were your observed outcomes similar or different to the expected outcomes? Why/why not?


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